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// case study 01 · lead scoringclient under nda

5× more appointments from the same lead list.

A lead-scoring model, proven in a live A/B test on 28,695 leads: same campaign, same agents, same scripts. The only change was the order of the list.

appointments booked, top half vs bottom half
28,695leads in the live a/b test
+53%longer average conversations
295khistorical leads in training data, 528k calls
Client: a dialer-driven sales organization. Outbound call center feeding field sales teams. Leads in, appointments out.
01 · the problem
Every list was called top to bottom, blind.

The dialer called every purchased list top to bottom, in the order the supplier delivered it. Agents burned hours on addresses that were never going to book, while the best leads sat untouched at the bottom. Nobody knew which half of a 25,000-row file was worth calling first.

02 · what I built
  • A scoring model (XGBoost) trained on 295,000 historical leads and 528,000 calls, predicting the probability that a lead becomes a booked appointment.
  • Features from public data only, joined per address: demographics, building age, floor area, energy characteristics. Any new list can be scored before the first dial, no behavioral history needed.
  • A local pipeline that ingests supplier files, deduplicates against the full contact history (existing customers, previously called, previously scored), scores every row and outputs dialer-ready batches.
03 · the prooflive a/b test
Top-scored half against bottom-scored half.

I scored a fresh list of 28,695 leads, split it into the top-scored half and the bottom-scored half, and ran both through the same campaign under identical conditions.

MetricTop halfBottom halfDifference
Reached (spoke to someone)24.8%21.1%+18%
Appointments booked0.6%0.1%
Conversation → appointment2.2%0.7%3.1×
Avg. conversation length46s30s+53%

Same leads, same callers, same scripts. The only difference was the order of the list.

If your team dials cold or purchased lists, roughly half your calling capacity is going to the wrong half of the list. This same approach works on your data.